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	<title>Pragma Synesi - interesting bits</title>
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	<description>Compendium of interesting bits I come across, with an occasional IMHO</description>
	<pubDate>Thu, 07 Aug 2008 20:13:31 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>What not to name your kid</title>
		<link>http://pragmasynesi.wordpress.com/2008/08/07/what-not-to-name-your-kid/</link>
		<comments>http://pragmasynesi.wordpress.com/2008/08/07/what-not-to-name-your-kid/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 Aug 2008 20:13:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>pragmasynesi</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[sociology]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[first name]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[given names]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[glass ceiling]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[juvenile delinquency]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[name]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Juvenile delinquency and glass ceilings caused by first names? Hmmm&#8230;.
&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8211;
Why Curly is a stooge and Justin a golden boy
Among the wealth of research on the importance of given names, a new study correlates first names with criminal behaviour
MICHAEL VALPY  &#124;  From Monday’s Globe and Mail  &#124;  June 9, 2008 at 4:44 [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class='snap_preview'><br /><p>Juvenile delinquency and glass ceilings caused by first names? Hmmm&#8230;.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<h3>Why Curly is a stooge and Justin a golden boy</h3>
<p><strong><em>Among the wealth of research on the importance of given names, a new study correlates first names with criminal behaviour</em></strong><br />
MICHAEL VALPY  |  From Monday’s Globe and Mail  |  June 9, 2008 at 4:44 AM EDT</p>
<p>A Jarrit by any other name might be a brain surgeon.</p>
<p><span id="more-127"></span>But unlike Michaels, Matthews and Christophers, he is more likely to be a juvenile delinquent.</p>
<p>Ditto for an Art, a Curly and a Thurmond.</p>
<p>This is the finding of two economists from Pennsylvania’s Shippensburg University presented at Canada’s annual Congress of the Humanities and Social Sciences held this year at the University of British Columbia.</p>
<p>While other researchers have studied the ties between first names and socio-economic status, the work of David Kalist and Daniel Lee is believed to be the first attempt to correlate first names with criminal behaviour.</p>
<p>The researchers tabulated the name frequency of all males born in one unidentified state between 1987 and 1991 then compared the list (dubbed the Popularity Name Index - PNI) with the names of all males in the state’s juvenile delinquency database between 1997 and 2005 -when the males born in 1987-91 had entered their teens.</p>
<p>Prof. Lee explained in an interview that a specific name in itself didn’t propel its bearer toward delinquency.</p>
<p>Rather, a name suggested the presence of a set of background factors, such as poverty and broken families, that predisposed a young male to delinquency.</p>
<p>The researchers looked at the PNI of whites and blacks separately to take into account the higher proportion of blacks with low socio-economic status. They also chose a state with a large multicultural city.</p>
<p>They found that the more popular the name, the less likely its bearer was to get into trouble with the law.</p>
<p>Thus Michaels sparkled with a PNI of 100.</p>
<p>But a misstep on the path of life was more likely for an Alec, Ernest, Ivan, Kareem, Malcolm, Preston and Tyrell, each with a PNI of 1. And at the very bottom of the list were the Arts, Curlys and Jarrits with a PNI of 0.</p>
<p>“We show that unpopular names are associated with juveniles who live in … female-headed households or households without two parents,” write Prof. Kalist and Prof. Lee. “In addition, juvenile delinquents with unpopular names are more likely to reside in counties with lower socio-economic status.”</p>
<p>Their paper points in passing to a wealth of research by other scholars on first names.</p>
<p>Research by U.S. academics Saka Aura and Gregory Hess says that women with diminutive sounding names that end in an “ee” sound - Kathy as opposed to Kate - may face more glass ceilings in the work force.</p>
<p>They report that more popular names, with fewer syllables, standardized spellings, fewer beginnings with vowels and endings with “oh” sounds, are linked to better lifetime outcomes -and in large part are the legacy of parents with a high level of education.</p>
<p>U.S. sociologists Stanley Lieberson and Eleanor Bell found that the most significant impact on naming was the education level of the mother. They cite the example of Allison, a name rarely given by mothers without high-school education but frequently given by mothers with 17 or more years of schooling.</p>
<p>One study shows that boys with names most commonly given to girls - shades of Johnny Cash’s A Boy Named Sue - are more likely to be disruptive in school.</p>
<p>On the other hand, said Prof. Lee, girls with boy-sounding names have been found to do better at math.</p>
<p>Call your daughter Bruce and you may have an Einstein.<br />
<strong><br />
Popularity contest</strong><br />
Researchers at Pennsylvania’s Shippensburg University found that men with more popular names tended to get in less trouble. Culled from a data base of more than 15,000 names in one U.S. state, here were the most and least popular names for boys.<br />
<strong><br />
LEAST POPULAR</strong><br />
Amram, Arrington, Art, Chevin, Curly, Emmert, Hareed, Jarrit, Kameren, Kimmel, Lan, Mercedes, Nevada, Preslin, Syrus, Tareel, Thurmond, Trevonne, Welton, Weylen.</p>
<p><strong>MOST POPULAR</strong><br />
Andrew, Anthony, Brandon, Brian, Christopher, Daniel, David, James, John, Joseph, Joshua, Justin, Kevin, Matthew, Michael, Nicholas, Robert, Ryan, William, Zachary.</p>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>What should you really fear?</title>
		<link>http://pragmasynesi.wordpress.com/2008/08/07/what-should-you-really-fear/</link>
		<comments>http://pragmasynesi.wordpress.com/2008/08/07/what-should-you-really-fear/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 Aug 2008 19:49:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>pragmasynesi</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[behaviour]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[brain]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[decision making]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[statistics]]></category>

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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://pragmasynesi.wordpress.com/?p=125</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Our &#8220;anecdotal&#8221; brain sucks up all the sensational news a media (vying for higher ad revenues) can muster.  This results in some skewed gut feelings of what we should be afraid of.
Wired&#8217;s book review of Dan Gardner&#8217;s The Science of Fear includes a quiz that is worth taking.
       ]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class='snap_preview'><br /><p>Our <a href="http://pragmasynesi.wordpress.com/2008/08/01/how-anecdotal-evidence-can-undermine-scientific-results/" target="_blank">&#8220;anecdotal&#8221; brain</a> sucks up all the sensational news a media (vying for higher ad revenues) can muster.  This results in some skewed gut feelings of what we should be afraid of.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.wired.com/culture/culturereviews/magazine/16-07/pl_print" target="_blank">Wired&#8217;s book review</a> of Dan Gardner&#8217;s <cite>The Science of Fear</cite> includes a quiz that is worth taking.</p>
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		<title>The End of Theory?</title>
		<link>http://pragmasynesi.wordpress.com/2008/08/07/the-end-of-theory/</link>
		<comments>http://pragmasynesi.wordpress.com/2008/08/07/the-end-of-theory/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 Aug 2008 18:55:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>pragmasynesi</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[statistics]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[science]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[model]]></category>

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		<category><![CDATA[Google]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://pragmasynesi.wordpress.com/?p=123</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&#8220;All models are wrong, but some are useful&#8221; &#8212; I love that quote. For me it highlights the raison d&#8217;etre of science: to predict and therefore to increase control. I don&#8217;t agree with the article that theories and models will become obsolete, but it is time to add some new tools to the set of [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class='snap_preview'><br /><p>&#8220;All models are wrong, but some are useful&#8221; &#8212; I love that quote. For me it highlights the raison d&#8217;etre of science: to predict and therefore to increase control. I don&#8217;t agree with the article that theories and models will become obsolete, but it is time to add some new tools to the set of predicting tools we already have.  And use the most useful ones.</p>
<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8211;</p>
<h4 class="magazineBanner"><a href="http://www.wired.com/wired/issue/16-07">WIRED MAGAZINE: 16.07</a></h4>
<p><!-- start article body --></p>
<h3><a href="http://www.wired.com/science/discoveries/magazine/16-07/pb_theory" target="_blank">The End of Theory: The Data Deluge Makes the Scientific Method Obsolete</a></h3>
<p><span id="more-123"></span></p>
<div class="date_time"><span class="c cs"> By Chris Anderson </span> <a href="http://www.wired.com/services/feedback/letterstoeditor"> <img class="img_middle" src="http://www.wired.com/images/icon_email.gif" alt="Email" /> </a> 06.23.08</div>
<div class="date_time">
<p><strong>&#8220;All models are wrong</strong>, but some are useful.&#8221;</p>
<p>So proclaimed statistician George Box 30 years ago, and he was right. But what choice did we have? Only models, from cosmological equations to theories of human behavior, seemed to be able to consistently, if imperfectly, explain the world around us. Until now. Today companies like Google, which have grown up in an era of massively abundant data, don&#8217;t have to settle for wrong models. Indeed, they don&#8217;t have to settle for models at all.</p>
<p>Sixty years ago, digital computers made information readable. Twenty years ago, the Internet made it reachable. Ten years ago, the first search engine crawlers made it a single database. Now Google and like-minded companies are sifting through the most measured age in history, treating this massive corpus as a laboratory of the human condition. They are the children of the Petabyte Age.</p>
<p>The Petabyte Age is different because more is different. Kilobytes were stored on floppy disks. Megabytes were stored on hard disks. Terabytes were stored in disk arrays. Petabytes are stored in the cloud. As we moved along that progression, we went from the folder analogy to the file cabinet analogy to the library analogy to — well, at petabytes we ran out of organizational analogies.</p>
<p>At the petabyte scale, information is not a matter of simple three- and four-dimensional taxonomy and order but of dimensionally agnostic statistics. It calls for an entirely different approach, one that requires us to lose the tether of data as something that can be visualized in its totality. It forces us to view data mathematically first and establish a context for it later. For instance, Google conquered the advertising world with nothing more than applied mathematics. It didn&#8217;t pretend to know anything about the culture and conventions of advertising — it just assumed that better data, with better analytical tools, would win the day. And Google was right.</p>
<p>Google&#8217;s founding philosophy is that we don&#8217;t know why this page is better than that one: If the statistics of incoming links say it is, that&#8217;s good enough. No semantic or causal analysis is required. That&#8217;s why Google can translate languages without actually &#8220;knowing&#8221; them (given equal corpus data, Google can translate Klingon into Farsi as easily as it can translate French into German). And why it can match ads to content without any knowledge or assumptions about the ads or the content.</p>
<p>Speaking at the O&#8217;Reilly Emerging Technology Conference this past March, Peter Norvig, Google&#8217;s research director, offered an update to George Box&#8217;s maxim: &#8220;All models are wrong, and increasingly you can succeed without them.&#8221;</p>
<p>This is a world where massive amounts of data and applied mathematics replace every other tool that might be brought to bear. Out with every theory of human behavior, from linguistics to sociology. Forget taxonomy, ontology, and psychology. Who knows why people do what they do? The point is they do it, and we can track and measure it with unprecedented fidelity. With enough data, the numbers speak for themselves.</p>
<p>The big target here isn&#8217;t advertising, though. It&#8217;s science. The scientific method is built around testable hypotheses. These models, for the most part, are systems visualized in the minds of scientists. The models are then tested, and experiments confirm or falsify theoretical models of how the world works. This is the way science has worked for hundreds of years.</p>
<p>Scientists are trained to recognize that correlation is not causation, that no conclusions should be drawn simply on the basis of correlation between X and Y (it could just be a coincidence). Instead, you must understand the underlying mechanisms that connect the two. Once you have a model, you can connect the data sets with confidence. Data without a model is just noise.</p>
<p>But faced with massive data, this approach to science — hypothesize, model, test — is becoming obsolete. Consider physics: Newtonian models were crude approximations of the truth (wrong at the atomic level, but still useful). A hundred years ago, statistically based quantum mechanics offered a better picture — but quantum mechanics is yet another model, and as such it, too, is flawed, no doubt a caricature of a more complex underlying reality. The reason physics has drifted into theoretical speculation about <em>n</em>-dimensional grand unified models over the past few decades (the &#8220;beautiful story&#8221; phase of a discipline starved of data) is that we don&#8217;t know how to run the experiments that would falsify the hypotheses — the energies are too high, the accelerators too expensive, and so on.</p>
<p>Now biology is heading in the same direction. The models we were taught in school about &#8220;dominant&#8221; and &#8220;recessive&#8221; genes steering a strictly Mendelian process have turned out to be an even greater simplification of reality than Newton&#8217;s laws. The discovery of gene-protein interactions and other aspects of epigenetics has challenged the view of DNA as destiny and even introduced evidence that environment can influence inheritable traits, something once considered a genetic impossibility.</p>
<p>In short, the more we learn about biology, the further we find ourselves from a model that can explain it.</p>
<p>There is now a better way. Petabytes allow us to say: &#8220;Correlation is enough.&#8221; We can stop looking for models. We can analyze the data without hypotheses about what it might show. We can throw the numbers into the biggest computing clusters the world has ever seen and let statistical algorithms find patterns where science cannot.</p>
<p>The best practical example of this is the shotgun gene sequencing by J. Craig Venter. Enabled by high-speed sequencers and supercomputers that statistically analyze the data they produce, Venter went from sequencing individual organisms to sequencing entire ecosystems. In 2003, he started sequencing much of the ocean, retracing the voyage of Captain Cook. And in 2005 he started sequencing the air. In the process, he discovered thousands of previously unknown species of bacteria and other life-forms.</p>
<p>If the words &#8220;discover a new species&#8221; call to mind Darwin and drawings of finches, you may be stuck in the old way of doing science. Venter can tell you almost nothing about the species he found. He doesn&#8217;t know what they look like, how they live, or much of anything else about their morphology. He doesn&#8217;t even have their entire genome. All he has is a statistical blip — a unique sequence that, being unlike any other sequence in the database, must represent a new species.</p>
<p>This sequence may correlate with other sequences that resemble those of species we do know more about. In that case, Venter can make some guesses about the animals — that they convert sunlight into energy in a particular way, or that they descended from a common ancestor. But besides that, he has no better model of this species than Google has of your MySpace page. It&#8217;s just data. By analyzing it with Google-quality computing resources, though, Venter has advanced biology more than anyone else of his generation.</p>
<p>This kind of thinking is poised to go mainstream. In February, the National Science Foundation announced the Cluster Exploratory, a program that funds research designed to run on a large-scale distributed computing platform developed by Google and IBM in conjunction with six pilot universities. The cluster will consist of 1,600 processors, several terabytes of memory, and hundreds of terabytes of storage, along with the software, including IBM&#8217;s Tivoli and open source versions of Google File System and MapReduce.<a href="http://www.wired.com/print/science/discoveries/magazine/16-07/pb_theory#corrections"><sup>1</sup></a> Early CluE projects will include simulations of the brain and the nervous system and other biological research that lies somewhere between wetware and software.</p>
<p>Learning to use a &#8220;computer&#8221; of this scale may be challenging. But the opportunity is great: The new availability of huge amounts of data, along with the statistical tools to crunch these numbers, offers a whole new way of understanding the world. Correlation supersedes causation, and science can advance even without coherent models, unified theories, or really any mechanistic explanation at all.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s no reason to cling to our old ways. It&#8217;s time to ask: What can science learn from Google?</p>
<p><em>Chris Anderson </em>(<a href="mailto:canderson@wired.com">canderson@wired.com</a>) <em>is the editor in chief of</em> Wired.</p>
<p> <!-- end article content --> <!-- close toolbox_art_bot --></p>
<p><a name="corrections"></a> <a name="correction1"></a></p>
<div class="title">Correction:</div>
<p><span class="correction.enum" style="vertical-align:super;font-weight:bold;color:red;">1</span>This story originally stated that the cluster software would include the actual Google File System.</p>
<p><span class="date_time"> 06.27.08 </span></div>
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		<title>How Anecdotal Evidence Can Undermine Scientific Results</title>
		<link>http://pragmasynesi.wordpress.com/2008/08/01/how-anecdotal-evidence-can-undermine-scientific-results/</link>
		<comments>http://pragmasynesi.wordpress.com/2008/08/01/how-anecdotal-evidence-can-undermine-scientific-results/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 01 Aug 2008 18:42:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>pragmasynesi</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[behaviour]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[For me, this is the key quote from the article below:
&#8220;&#8230;we have evolved brains that pay attention to anecdotes because false positives (believing there is a connection between A and B when there is not) are usually harmless, whereas false negatives (believing there is no connection between A and B when there is) may take [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class='snap_preview'><br /><div id="headline">For me, this is the key quote from the article below:</div>
<div style="padding-left:30px;"><em>&#8220;&#8230;we have evolved brains that pay attention to anecdotes because false positives (believing there is a connection between A and B when there is not) are usually harmless, whereas false negatives (believing there is no connection between A and B when there is) may take you out of the gene pool&#8230;&#8221;</em></div>
<div>Something to watch for - both in self and in others.</div>
<div id="headline">
<p><a href="http://www.sciam.com/sciammag">Scientific American Magazine</a> -  July 25, 2008</p>
<h3><a href="http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=how-anecdotal-evidence-can-undermine-scientific-results&amp;print=true" target="_blank">How Anecdotal Evidence Can Undermine Scientific Results</a></h3>
<h4>Why subjective anecdotes often trump objective data</h4>
<p>By Michael Shermer </p></div>
<p><span id="more-117"></span>The recent medical controversy over whether vaccinations cause autism reveals a habit of human cognition—thinking anecdotally comes naturally, whereas thinking scientifically does not.<br />
On the one side are scientists who have been unable to find any causal link between the symptoms of autism and the vaccine preservative thimerosal, which in the body breaks down into ethylmercury, the culprit du jour for autism’s cause. On the other side are parents who noticed that shortly after having their children vaccinated autistic symptoms began to appear. These anecdotal associations are so powerful that they cause people to ignore contrary evidence: ethylmercury is expelled from the body quickly (unlike its chemical cousin methylmercury) and therefore cannot accumulate in the brain long enough to cause damage. And in any case, autism continues to be diagnosed in children born after thimerosal was removed from most vaccines in 1999; today trace amounts exist in only a few.</p>
<p>The reason for this cognitive disconnect is that we have evolved brains that pay attention to anecdotes because false positives (believing there is a connection between A and B when there is not) are usually harmless, whereas false negatives (believing there is no connection between A and B when there is) may take you out of the gene pool. Our brains are belief engines that employ association learning to seek and find patterns. Superstition and belief in magic are millions of years old, whereas science, with its methods of controlling for intervening variables to circumvent false positives, is only a few hundred years old. So it is that any medical huckster promising that A will cure B has only to advertise a handful of successful anecdotes in the form of testimonials.</p>
<p>Take wheatgrass juice &#8230; if you can stomach it. The claims for its curative powers are bottomless. According to the Natural Medicines Comprehensive Database (the “bible” of natural medicines: <a href="http://www.naturaldatabase.com/" target="_blank">www.naturaldatabase.com</a>), wheatgrass is “used therapeutically for increasing hemoglobin production, improving blood sugar disorders such as diabetes, preventing tooth decay, improving wound healing, and preventing bacterial infections.” And that’s not all. “It is also used orally for common cold, cough and bronchitis, fever and colds, inflammation of mouth and pharynx, tendency to infection, gout, liver disorders, ulcerative colitis, cancer, rheumatic pain, and chronic skin problems.”</p>
<p>The alleged salubrious effects of wheatgrass were promoted in the 1940s by a Lithuanian immigrant to Boston named Ann Wigmore, a holistic health practitioner who was inspired by the biblical story of King Nebuchadnezzar, recounted in Daniel 4:33, in which “he was driven from men, and did eat grass as oxen, and his body was wet with the dew of heaven, till his hairs were grown like eagles’ feathers, and his nails like birds’ claws.” Wigmore also noted that dogs and cats eat grass when they are ill and feel better after regurgitation, which gave her the idea of the wheatgrass detox. Because we have fewer stomachs than cows do, she hatched the idea of blending freshly cut wheatgrass into juice form for easier digestion—through either orifice—a practice still employed today. She believed that the enzymes and chlorophyll in wheatgrass constitute its healing powers.</p>
<p>According to William T. Jarvis, a retired professor of public health at the Loma Linda University School of Medicine and founder of the National Council against Health Fraud (<a href="http://www.ncahf.org/" target="_blank">www.ncahf.org</a>), this is all baloney: “Enzymes are complex protein molecules produced by living organisms exclusively for their own use in promoting chemical reactions. Orally ingested enzymes are digested in the stomach and have no enzymatic activity in the eater.” Jarvis adds, “The fact that grass-eating animals are not spared from cancer, despite their large intake of fresh chlorophyll, seems to have been lost on Wigmore. In fact, chlorophyll cannot ‘detoxify the body’ because it is not absorbed.”</p>
<p>I tried wheatgrass juice at the Oh Happy Days natural food store in Altadena, Calif., as part of an investigation for the pilot episode of <em>Skeptologists</em>, a series we hope to sell to a television network (where another biblical phrase is apropos: “Many are called, but few are chosen”). My co-stars—Kirsten Sanford, who has a Ph.D. in physiology and is now a science journalist, and Steven Novella, director of general neurology at the Yale School of Medicine—also imbibed. If a picture is worth a thousand words, I will double this essay’s length by sharing the above snapshot.</p>
<p><em>Note: This article was originally printed with the title, &#8220;Wheatgrass Juice and Folk Medicine&#8221;.</em></p>
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		<title>How Snoozing Makes You Smarter</title>
		<link>http://pragmasynesi.wordpress.com/2008/07/31/how-snoozing-makes-you-smarter/</link>
		<comments>http://pragmasynesi.wordpress.com/2008/07/31/how-snoozing-makes-you-smarter/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 31 Jul 2008 18:27:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>pragmasynesi</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[brain]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[learning]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[sleep]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[sleep deprivation]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[remember]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[REM]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Key points in this article: sleeping allows us to learn. It cements our memories, but also culls them, keeping the ones that are emotionally related.  Our brains also solve problems/discover patterns while we sleep.  We need about 6 hours of continuous sleep to achieve this, both slow-wave and REM.
Scientific American Mind -  [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class='snap_preview'><br /><p>Key points in this article: sleeping allows us to learn. It cements our memories, but also culls them, keeping the ones that are emotionally related.  Our brains also solve problems/discover patterns while we sleep.  We need about 6 hours of continuous sleep to achieve this, both slow-wave and REM.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.sciam.com/sciammind">Scientific American Mind</a> -  August 7, 2008</p>
<h3><a href="http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=how-snoozing-makes-you-smarter&amp;sc=MND_20080731" target="_blank">How Snoozing Makes You Smarter</a></h3>
<h4>During slumber, our brain engages in data analysis, from strengthening memories to solving problems</h4>
<p><span id="more-114"></span> By Robert Stickgold and Jeffrey M. Ellenbogen</p>
<div id="content">
<p>In 1865 Friedrich August Kekulé woke up from a strange dream: he imagined a snake forming a circle and biting its own tail. Like many organic chemists of the time, Kekulé had been working feverishly to describe the true chemical structure of benzene, a problem that continually eluded understanding. But Kekulé’s dream of a snake swallowing its tail, so the story goes, helped him to accurately realize that benzene’s structure formed a ring. This insight paved the way for a new understanding of organic chemistry and earned Kekulé a title of nobility in Germany.</p>
<p>Although most of us have not been ennobled, there is something undeniably familiar about Kekulé’s problem-solving method. Whether deciding to go to a particular college, accept a challenging job offer or propose to a future spouse, “sleeping on it” seems to provide the clarity we need to piece together life’s puzzles. But how does slumber present us with answers?</p>
<p>The latest research suggests that while we are peacefully asleep our brain is busily processing the day’s information. It combs through recently formed memories, stabilizing, copying and filing them, so that they will be more useful the next day. A night of sleep can make memories resistant to interference from other information and allow us to recall them for use more effectively the next morning. And sleep not only strengthens memories, it also lets the brain sift through newly formed memories, possibly even identifying what is worth keeping and selectively maintaining or enhancing these aspects of a memory. When a picture contains both emotional and unemotional elements, sleep can save the important emotional parts and let the less relevant background drift away. It can analyze collections of memories to discover relations among them or identify the gist of a memory while the unnecessary details fade—perhaps even helping us find the meaning in what we have learned.</p>
<p><strong>Not Merely Resting</strong><br />
If you find this news surprising, you are not alone. Until the mid-1950s, scientists generally assumed that the brain was shut down while we snoozed. Although German psychologist Hermann Ebbinghaus had evidence in 1885 that sleep protects simple memories from decay, for decades researchers attributed the effect to a passive protection against interference. We forget things, they argued, because all the new information coming in pushes out the existing memories. But because there is nothing coming in while we get shut-eye, we simply do not forget as much.</p>
<p>Then, in 1953, the late physiologists Eugene Aserinsky and Nathaniel Kleitman of the University of Chicago discovered the rich variations in brain activity during sleep, and scientists realized they had been missing something important. Aserinsky and Kleitman found that our sleep follows a 90-minute cycle, in and out of rapid-eye-movement (REM) sleep. During REM sleep, our brain waves—the oscillating electromagnetic signals that result from large-scale brain activity—look similar to those produced while we are awake. And in subsequent decades, the late Mircea Steriade of Laval University in Quebec and other neuroscientists discovered that individual collections of neurons were independently firing in between these REM phases, during periods known as slow-wave sleep, when large populations of brain cells fire synchronously in a steady rhythm of one to four beats each second. So it became clear that the sleeping brain was not merely “resting,” either in REM sleep or in slow-wave sleep. Sleep was doing something different. Something <em>active</em>.</p>
<p><strong>Sleep to Remember</strong><br />
The turning point in our understanding of sleep and memory came in 1994 in a groundbreaking study. Neurobiologists Avi Karni, Dov Sagi and their colleagues at the Weizmann Institute of Science in Israel showed that when volunteers got a night of sleep, they improved at a task that involved rapidly discriminating between objects they saw—but only when they had had normal amounts of REM sleep. When the subjects were deprived of REM sleep, the improvement disappeared. The fact that performance actually rose overnight negated the idea of passive protection. Something had to be happening within the sleeping brain that altered the memories formed the day before. But Karni and Sagi described REM sleep as a permissive state—one that <em>could</em> allow changes to happen—rather than a necessary one. They proposed that such unconscious improvements could happen across the day or the night. What was important, they argued, was that improvements could only occur during <em>part</em> of the night, during REM.</p>
<p>It was not until one of us (Stickgold) revisited this question in 2000 that it became clear that sleep could, in fact, be necessary for this improvement to occur. Using the same rapid visual discrimination task, we found that only with more than six hours of sleep did people’s performance improve over the 24 hours following the learning session. And REM sleep was not the only important component: slow-wave sleep was equally crucial. In other words, sleep—in all its phases—does something to improve memory that being awake does not do.</p>
<p>To understand how that could be so, it helps to review a few memory basics. When we “encode” information in our brain, the newly minted memory is actually just beginning a long journey during which it will be stabilized, enhanced and qualitatively altered, until it bears only faint resemblance to its original form. Over the first few hours, a memory can become more stable, resistant to interference from competing memories. But over longer periods, the brain seems to decide what is important to remember and what is not—and a detailed memory evolves into something more like a story.</p>
<p>In 2006 we demonstrated the powerful ability of sleep to stabilize memories and provided further evidence against the myth that sleep only passively (and, therefore, transiently) protects memories from interference. We reasoned that if sleep merely provides a transient benefit for memory, then memories after sleep should be, once again, susceptible to interference. We first trained people to memorize pairs of words in an A-B pattern (for example, “blanket-window”) and then allowed some of the volunteers to sleep. Later they all learned pairs in an A-C pattern (“blanket-sneaker”), which were meant to interfere with their memories of the A-B pairs. As expected, the people who slept could remember more of the A-B pairs than people who had stayed awake could. And when we introduced interfering A-C pairs, it was even more apparent that those who slept had a stronger, more stable memory for the A-B sets. Sleep changed the memory, making it robust and more resistant to interference in the coming day.</p>
<p>But sleep’s effects on memory are not limited to stabilization. Over just the past few years, a number of studies have demonstrated the sophistication of the memory processing that happens during slumber. In fact, it appears that as we sleep, the brain might even be dissecting our memories and retaining only the most salient details. In one study we created a series of pictures that included either unpleasant or neutral objects on a neutral background and then had people view the pictures one after another. Twelve hours later we tested their memories for the objects and the backgrounds. The results were quite surprising. Whether the subjects had stayed awake or slept, the accuracy of their memories dropped by 10 percent for everything. Everything, that is, except for the memory of the emotionally evocative objects after night of sleep. Instead of deteriorating, memories for the emotional objects actually seemed to improve by a few percent overnight, showing about a 15 percent improvement relative to the deteriorating backgrounds. After a few more nights, one could imagine that little but the emotional objects would be left. We know this culling happens over time with real-life events, but now it appears that sleep may play a crucial role in this evolution of emotional memories.</p>
<p>Precisely how the brain strengthens and enhances memories remains largely a mystery, although we can make some educated guesses at the basic mechanism. We know that memories are created by altering the strengths of connections among hundreds, thousands or perhaps even millions of neurons, making certain patterns of activity more likely to recur. These patterns of activity, when reactivated, lead to the recall of a memory—whether that memory is where we left the car keys or a pair of words such as “blanket-window.” These changes in synaptic strength are thought to arise from a molecular process known as long-term potentiation, which strengthens the connections between pairs of neurons that fire at the same time. Thus, cells that fire together wire together, locking the pattern in place for future recall.</p>
<p>During sleep, the brain reactivates patterns of neural activity that it performed during the day, thus strengthening the memories by long-term potentiation. In 1994 neuroscientists Matthew Wilson and Bruce McNaughton, both then at the University of Arizona, showed this effect for the first time using rats fitted with implants that monitored their brain activity. They taught these rats to circle a track to find food, recording neuronal firing patterns from the rodents’ brains all the while. Cells in the hippocampus—a brain structure critical for spatial memory—created a map of the track, with different “place cells” firing as the rats traversed each region of the track [see “<a href="http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=matrix-in-your-head" target="_blank">The Matrix in Your Head</a>,” by James J. Knierim; Scientific American Mind, June/July 2007]. Place cells correspond so closely to exact physical locations that the researchers could monitor the rats’ progress around the track simply by watching which place cells were firing at any given time. And here is where it gets even more interesting: when Wilson and McNaughton continued to record from these place cells as the rats slept, they saw the cells continuing to fire in the same order—as if the rats were “practicing” running around the track in their sleep.</p>
<p>As this unconscious rehearsing strengthens memory, something more complex is happening as well—the brain may be selectively rehearsing the more difficult aspects of a task. For instance, Matthew P. Walker’s work at Harvard Medical School in 2005 demonstrated that when subjects learned to type complicated sequences such as 4-1-3-2-4 on a keyboard (much like learning a new piano score), sleeping between practice sessions led to faster and more coordinated finger movements. But on more careful examination, he found that people were not simply getting faster overall on this typing task. Instead each subject was getting faster on those particular keystroke sequences at which he or she was worst.</p>
<p>The brain accomplishes this improvement, at least in part, by moving the memory for these sequences overnight. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, Walker showed that his subjects used different brain regions to control their typing after they had slept. The next day typing elicited more activity in the right primary motor cortex, medial prefrontal lobe, hippocampus and left cerebellum—places that would support faster and more precise key-press movements—and less activity in the parietal cortices, left insula, temporal pole and frontopolar region, areas whose suppression indicates reduced conscious and emotional effort. The entire memory got strengthened, but especially the parts that needed it most, and sleep was doing this work by using different parts of the brain than were used while learning the task.</p>
<p><strong>Solutions in the Dark</strong><br />
These effects of sleep on memory are impressive. Adding to the excitement, recent discoveries show that sleep also facilitates the active analysis of new memories, enabling the brain to solve problems and infer new information. In 2007 one of us (Ellenbogen) showed that the brain learns while we are asleep. The study used a transitive inference task; for example, if Bill is older than Carol and Carol is older than Pierre, the laws of transitivity make it clear that Bill is older than Pierre. Making this inference requires stitching those two fragments of information together. People and animals tend to make these transitive inferences without much conscious thought, and the ability to do so serves as an enormously helpful cognitive skill: we discover new information (Bill is older than Pierre) without ever learning it directly.</p>
<p>The inference seems obvious in Bill and Pierre’s case, but in the experiment, we used abstract colored shapes that have no intuitive relation to one another, making the task more challenging. We taught people so-called premise pairs—they learned to choose, for example, the orange oval over the turquoise one, turquoise over green, green over paisley, and so on. The premise pairs imply a hierarchy—if orange is a better choice than turquoise and turquoise is preferred to green, then orange should win over green. But when we tested the subjects on these novel pairings 20 minutes after they learned the premise pairs, they had not yet discovered these hidden relations. They chose green just as often as they chose orange, performing no better than chance.</p>
<p>When we tested subjects 12 hours later on the same day, however, they made the correct choice 70 percent of the time. Simply allowing time to pass enabled the brain to calculate and learn these transitive inferences. And people who slept during the 12 hours performed significantly better, linking the most distant pairs (such as orange versus paisley) with 90 percent accuracy. So it seems the brain needs time after we learn information to process it, connecting the dots, so to speak—and sleep provides the maximum benefit.</p>
<p>In a 2004 study Ullrich Wagner and others in Jan Born’s laboratory at the University of Lübeck in Germany elegantly demonstrated just how powerful sleep’s processing of memories can be. They taught subjects how to solve a particular type of mathematical problem by using a long and tedious procedure and had them practice it about 100 times. The subjects were then sent away and told to come back 12 hours later, when they were instructed to try it another 200 times.</p>
<p>What the researchers had not told their subjects was that there is a much simpler way to solve these problems. The researchers could tell if and when subjects gained insight into this shortcut, because their speed would suddenly increase. Many of the subjects did, in fact, discover the trick during the second session. But when they got a night’s worth of sleep between the two sessions, they were more than two and a half times more likely to figure it out—59 percent of the subjects who slept found the trick, compared with only 23 percent of those who stayed awake between the sessions. Somehow the sleeping brain was solving this problem, without even knowing that there was a problem to solve.</p>
<p><strong>The Need to Sleep</strong><br />
As exciting findings such as these come in more and more rapidly, we are becoming sure of one thing: while we sleep, our brain is anything but inactive. It is now clear that sleep can consolidate memories by enhancing and stabilizing them and by finding patterns within studied material even when we do not know that patterns might be there. It is also obvious that skimping on sleep stymies these crucial cognitive processes: some aspects of memory consolidation only happen with more than six hours of sleep. Miss a night, and the day’s memories might be compromised—an unsettling thought in our fast-paced, sleep-deprived society.</p>
<p>But the question remains: Why did we evolve in such a way that certain cognitive functions happen only while we are asleep? Would it not seem to make more sense to have these operations going on in the daytime? Part of the answer might be that the evolutionary pressures for sleep existed long before higher cognition—functions such as immune system regulation and efficient energy usage (for instance, hunt in the day and rest at night) are only two of the many reasons it makes sense to sleep on a planet that alternates between light and darkness. And because we already had evolutionary pressure to sleep, the theory goes, the brain evolved to use that time wisely by processing information from the previous day: acquire by day; process by night.</p>
<p>Or it might have been the other way around. Memory processing seems to be the only function of sleep that actually requires an organism to truly sleep—that is, to become unaware of its surroundings and stop processing incoming sensory signals. This unconscious cognition appears to demand the same brain resources used for processing incoming signals when awake. The brain, therefore, might have to shut off external inputs to get this job done. In contrast, although other functions such as immune system regulation might be more readily performed when an organism is inactive, there does not seem to be any reason why the organism would need to lose awareness. Thus, it may be these other functions that have been added to take advantage of the sleep that had already evolved for memory.</p>
<p>Many other questions remain about our nighttime cognition, however it might have evolved. Exactly how does the brain accomplish this memory processing? What are the chemical or molecular activities that account for these effects? These questions raise a larger issue about memory in general: What makes the brain remember certain pieces of information and forget others? We think the lesson here is that understanding sleep will ultimately help us to better understand memory.</p>
<p>The task might seem daunting, but these puzzles are the kind on which scientists thrive—and they can be answered. First, we will have to design and carry out more and more experiments, slowly teasing out answers. But equally important, we are going to have to sleep on it.</p>
<p><em>Note: This article was originally published with the title, &#8220;Quiet! Sleeping Brain at Work.&#8221;</em></div>
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		<title>Neuroeconomics</title>
		<link>http://pragmasynesi.wordpress.com/2008/07/30/neuroeconomics/</link>
		<comments>http://pragmasynesi.wordpress.com/2008/07/30/neuroeconomics/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Jul 2008 19:52:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>pragmasynesi</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[behaviour]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[brain]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[decision making]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[economics]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[neuroeconomics]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[neuroscience]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Neuroeconomics 
Do economists need brains?

Jul 24th 2008 &#124; NEW YORK
From The Economist print edition
A new school of economists is controversially turning to neuroscience to improve the dismal science

FOR all the undoubted wit of their neuroscience-inspired concept album, “Heavy Mental”—songs include “Mind-Body Problem” and “All in a Nut”—The Amygdaloids are unlikely to loom large in the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class='snap_preview'><br /><p><span style="font-size:small;font-family:verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif;color:#cc0033;"><strong>Neuroeconomics </strong></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size:large;font-family:verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif;"><a href="http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11785391" target="_blank"><strong>Do economists need brains?</strong></a><br />
</span></p>
<div>Jul 24th 2008 | NEW YORK<br />
From The Economist print edition</div>
<p><span style="font-family:verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif;"><strong>A new school of economists is controversially turning to neuroscience to improve the dismal science</strong></span><br />
<!--back--></p>
<p><span id="more-112"></span><span style="font-family:verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif;">FOR all the undoubted wit of their neuroscience-inspired concept album, “Heavy Mental”—songs include “Mind-Body Problem” and “All in a Nut”—The Amygdaloids are unlikely to loom large in the annals of rock and roll. Yet when the history of economics is finally written, Joseph LeDoux, the New York band’s singer-guitarist, may deserve at least a footnote. In 1996 Mr LeDoux, who by day is a professor of neuroscience at New York University, published a book, “The Emotional Brain: The Mysterious Underpinnings of Emotional Life”, that helped to inspire what is today one of the liveliest and most controversial areas of economic research: neuroeconomics.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family:verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif;">In the late 1990s a generation of academic economists had their eyes opened by Mr LeDoux’s and other accounts of how studies of the brain using recently developed techniques such as magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) showed that different bits of the old grey matter are associated with different sorts of emotional and decision-making activity. The amygdalas are an example. Neuroscientists have shown that these almond-shaped clusters of neurons deep inside the medial temporal lobes play a key role in the formation of emotional responses such as fear.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family:verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif;">These new neuroeconomists saw that it might be possible to move economics away from its simplified model of rational, self-interested, utility-maximising decision-making. Instead of hypothesising about <em>Homo economicus</em>, they could base their research on what actually goes on inside the head of <em>Homo sapiens</em>.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family:verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif;">The dismal science had already been edging in that direction thanks to behavioural economics. Since the 1980s researchers in this branch of the discipline had used insights from psychology to develop more “realistic” models of individual decision-making, in which people often did things that were not in their best interests. But neuroeconomics had the potential, some believed, to go further and to embed economics in the chemical processes taking place in the brain.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family:verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif;">Early successes for neuroeconomists came from using neuroscience to shed light on some of the apparent flaws in <em>H. economicus</em> noted by the behaviouralists. One much-cited example is the “ultimatum game”, in which one player proposes a division of a sum of money between himself and a second player. The other player must either accept or reject the offer. If he rejects it, neither gets a penny.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family:verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif;">According to standard economic theory, as long as the first player offers the second any money at all, his proposal will be accepted, because the second player prefers something to nothing. In experiments, however, behavioural economists found that the second player often turned down low offers—perhaps, they suggested, to punish the first player for proposing an unfair split.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family:verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif;">Neuroeconomists have tried to explain this seemingly irrational behaviour by using an “active MRI”. In MRIs used in medicine the patient simply lies still during the procedure; in active MRIs, participants are expected to answer economic questions while blood flows in the brain are scrutinised to see where activity is going on while decisions are made. They found that rejecting a low offer in the ultimatum game tended to be associated with high levels of activity in the dorsal stratium, a part of the brain that neuroscience suggests is involved in reward and punishment decisions, providing some support to the behavioural theories.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family:verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif;">As well as the ultimatum game, neuroeconomists have focused on such issues as people’s reasons for trusting one another, apparently irrational risk-taking, the relative valuation of short- and long-term costs and benefits, altruistic or charitable behaviour, and addiction. Releases of dopamine, the brain’s pleasure chemical, may indicate economic utility or value, they say. There is also growing interest in new evidence from neuroscience that tentatively suggests that two conditions of the brain compete in decision-making: a cold, objective state and a hot, emotional state in which the ability to make sensible trade-offs disappears. The potential interactions between these two brain states are ideal subjects for economic modelling.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family:verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif;">Already, neuroeconomics is giving many economists a dopamine rush. For example, Colin Camerer of the California Institute of Technology, a leading centre of research in neuroeconomics, believes that incorporating insights from neuroscience could transform economics, by providing a much better understanding of everything from people’s reactions to advertising to decisions to go on strike. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family:verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif;">At the same time, Mr Camerer thinks economics has the potential to improve neuroscience, for instance by introducing neuroscientists to sophisticated game theory. “The neuroscientist’s idea of a game is rock, paper, scissors, which is zero-sum, whereas economists have focused on strategic games that produce gains through collaboration.” Herbert Gintis of the Sante Fe Institute has even higher hopes that breakthroughs in neuroscience will help bring about the integration of all the behavioural sciences—economics, psychology, anthropology, sociology, political science and biology relating to human and animal behaviour—around a common, brain-based model of how people take decisions.</span></p>
<div><span style="font-family:verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif;"><strong><a name="mindless_criticism">Mindless criticism</a></strong></span></div>
<p><span style="font-family:verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif;">However, not everyone is convinced. The fiercest attack on neuroeconomics, and indeed behavioural economics, has come from two economists at Princeton University, Faruk Gul and Wolfgang Pesendorfer. In an article in 2005, “The Case for Mindless Economics”, they argued that neuroscience could not transform economics because what goes on inside the brain is irrelevant to the discipline. What matters are the decisions people take—in the jargon, their “revealed preferences”—not the process by which they reach them. For the purposes of understanding how society copes with the consequences of those decisions, the assumption of rational utility-maximisation works just fine.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family:verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif;">But today’s neuroeconomists are not the first dismal scientists to dream of peering inside the human brain. In 1881, a few years after William Jevons argued that the functioning of the brain’s black box would not be known, Francis Edgeworth proposed the creation of a “hedonimeter”, which would measure the utility that each individual gained from his decisions. “From moment to moment the hedonimeter varies; the delicate index now flickering with the flutter of the passions, now steadied by intellectual activity, low sunk whole hours in the neighbourhood of zero, or momentarily springing up towards infinity,” he wrote, poetically for an economist.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family:verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif;">This is “equivalent to neuroeconomics’ brain scan,” notes David Colander, an economist at Middlebury College in Vermont, in an article last year in the <em>Journal of Economic Perspectives</em>, “Edgeworth’s Hedonimeter and the Quest to Measure Utility”. Later economists such as Irving Fisher, Frank Ramsey (who proposed a utility-measuring machine called a “psychogalvanometer”) and Friedrich von Hayek would discuss the role of the complex inner workings of the brain. Hayek cited early advances in neuroscience to explain why each individual has a unique perspective on the world.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family:verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif;">The reason why economists in the late 19th century and much of the 20th put the rational utility-maximising individual at the heart of their models was not that they thought that economics should avoid looking into the brain, but because they lacked the technical means to do so, says Mr Colander. “Economics became a deductive science because we didn’t have the tools to gather information inductively. Now, better statistical tools and neuroscience are opening up the possibility that economics can become an abductive science that combines elements of deductive and inductive reasoning.”</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family:verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif;">The big question now is whether the tools of neuroscience will allow economics to fulfil Edgeworth’s vision—or, if that is too much to ask, at least to be grounded in the physical reality of the brain. Studies in the first decade of neuroeconomics relied heavily on active MRI scans. Economists’ initial excitement at being able to enliven their seminars with pictures of parts of the brain lighting up in response to different experiments (so much more interesting than the usual equations) has led to a recognition of the limits of MRIs. “Curiosity about neuroscience among economists has outstripped what we have to say, for now,” admits Mr Camerer.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family:verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif;">A standard MRI identifies activity in too large a section of the brain to support much more than loose correlations. “Blood flow is an indirect measure of what goes on in the head, a blunt instrument,” concedes Kevin McCabe, a neuroeconomist at George Mason University. Increasingly, neuroscientists are looking for clearer answers by analysing individual neurons, which is possible only with invasive techniques—such as sticking a needle into the brain. For economists, this “involves risks that clearly outweigh the benefits,” admits Mr McCabe. Most invasive brain research is carried out on rats and monkeys which, though they have similar dopamine-based incentive systems, lack the decision-making sophistication of most humans. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family:verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif;">One new technique being used by some neuroeconomists is transcranial magnetic stimulation, in which a coil held next to the head issues a low-level magnetic pulse that temporarily disrupts activity in a certain part of the brain, to see if that changes the subject’s preferences—for example, for a particular food and how much he is willing to pay for it. However, this tool, too, has only limited applicability, as it cannot get at the central temporal node of the brain where much basic reward activity takes place.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family:verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif;">Still, Mr Camerer is confident that neuroeconomics will deliver its first big breakthroughs within five years. Likewise, Mr McCabe sees growing sophistication in neuroeconomic research. For the past four years, a group of leading neuroeconomists and neuroscientists has met to refine questions about the brain and economic behaviour. Researchers trained in both neuroscience and economics are entering the field. They are asking more sophisticated questions than the first generation “spots on brains” experiments, says Mr McCabe, such as “how these spots would change with different economic variables.” He expects that within a few years neuroeconomics will have uncovered enough about the interactions between what goes on in people’s brains and the outside world to start to shape the public-policy agenda—though it is too early to say how.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family:verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif;">The success of neuroeconomics need not mean that behavioural economics will inevitably triumph over an economics based on rationality. Indeed, many behavioural economists are extremely pessimistic about the chances that brain studies will deliver any useful insights, points out Mr Camerer with regret.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family:verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif;">However, Daniel Kahneman, a Princeton University psychologist who in 2002 won the Nobel prize in economics for his contribution to behavioural economics, is an enthusiastic supporter of the new field. “In many areas of economics, it will dominate, because it works,” says Mr Kahneman.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family:verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif;">Even so, “we are nowhere near the demise of traditional neoclassical economics,” he argues. Instead, insights from brain studies may enable orthodox economists to develop a richer definition of rationality. “These traditional economists may be more impressed by brain evidence than evidence from psychology,” he says; “when you talk about biology either in an evolutionary or physical sense, you feel they have greater comfort levels than when you start to talk about psychology.”</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family:verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif;">In this respect, Mr Kahneman’s Princeton colleagues and neuroscience-bashers may be making a mistake in bundling behavioural economics—soft mind science—and neuroeconomics—hard biology—together. “It is far easier to argue for mindless economics than for brainless economics,” he says.</span></p>
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		<title>Wonder Drugs That Can Kill</title>
		<link>http://pragmasynesi.wordpress.com/2008/07/29/wonder-drugs-that-can-kill/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 29 Jul 2008 15:45:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>pragmasynesi</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[health]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[This article from Discover Magazine includes an eye-opening section on interpretation of clinical research studies and doctors&#8217; understanding of it.
I am passing this article on to my doctor.
Wonder Drugs That Can Kill
06.20.2008
Modern pharmaceutical &#8220;breakthroughs&#8221; sometimes do more harm than good.

by Jeanne Lenzer
Phil Brewer thought he knew exactly what to do when the ambulance crew wheeled [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class='snap_preview'><br /><p>This article from Discover Magazine includes an eye-opening section on interpretation of clinical research studies and doctors&#8217; understanding of it.</p>
<p>I am passing this article on to my doctor.</p>
<h3><a href="http://discovermagazine.com/2008/jul/20-wonder-drugs-that-can-kill/article_view?b_start:int=3&amp;-C=" target="_blank">Wonder Drugs That Can Kill</a></h3>
<p><span class="date">06.20.2008</span></p>
<h4>Modern pharmaceutical &#8220;breakthroughs&#8221; sometimes do more harm than good.</h4>
<p><span id="more-110"></span><br />
<span class="author">by Jeanne Lenzer</span></p>
<p>Phil Brewer thought he knew exactly what to do when the ambulance crew wheeled a well-dressed man in his late sixties into the emergency department. What he didn’t know: He was about to be involved in a series of events that would kill his patient. Brewer, then an assistant professor of emergency medicine at Yale School of Medicine, had been alerted by the crew that the man, Sanders Tenant (a pseudonym), had suddenly begun to talk gibberish while dining out with his family. Then his right arm and leg had gone weak.</p>
<p>Brewer suspected an acute stroke, but first he had to rule out conditions that <a href="http://www.springerlink.com/content/g030123207rr3w22/" target="_blank">can masquerade as a stroke</a>, such as low blood sugar, a seizure, a brain tumor, and migraine headache. He had only minutes to make the correct diagnosis. Then the gathering medical team would decide whether to use a new stroke treatment that had recently been approved, a clot-buster known as tPA. Brewer called in a neurologist and the stroke team. After a CAT scan of the patient’s brain showed no sign of bleeding (something that would prevent the use of a clot-buster), the decision was made: Yes, use tPA. Despite following each step of the established protocol for this new treatment, Brewer experienced the unthinkable—his patient’s death. Tenant suffered a massive brain hemorrhage and died, not from his stroke but from effects of tPA, the drug that was meant to save him.</p>
<p>When we go to the doctor, we assume that the drugs he or she prescribes have been carefully tested to make sure they are both safe and effective. Most times they are. Yet sometimes the drugs cause more problems than they solve. Adverse drug reactions kill tens of thousands of people annually; one widely cited study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) in 1998 puts <a href="http://jama.ama-assn.org/cgi/content/abstract/279/15/1200" target="_blank">the number at more than 100,000</a>. Recently a series of drug recalls have pulled back the curtain to show how the media, the public, and some doctors can misinterpret medical studies or take them out of context in ways that make medical treatments look safer and more effective than they actually are.</p>
<p>To a greater degree than ever before, powerful forces in the marketplace are impacting the quality, use, and safety of prescription medications. Drug manufacturers are spending more to promote their products while being subjected to tighter regulation and greater pressure for financial returns. The media are talking up each new “miracle cure” in headlines and television segments. Doctors have to navigate a tangle of administrative and medical concerns, one physician noting that “if you have a patient in your office, you can’t say, ‘Oh, I’m going to look at the drug company’s online database about <a href="http://www.drugs.com/zyprexa.html" target="_blank">Zyprexa</a>.’ Most doctors don’t even know the databases exist. But even if they did, the next thing you know, three or four hours have gone by and you’ve missed all the patients waiting to see you.” Insurance companies and even the stock market play a role too. And consumers, increasingly <a href="http://www.prwatch.org/node/7026" target="_blank">subject to pharmaceutical advertising</a>, are routinely urged to demand the best and the newest for their health. All together, this is a perfect storm for prescription drug problems.</p>
<p>How often do today’s medical “breakthroughs” become tomorrow’s discredited science? John P. A. <a href="http://users.uoi.gr/hyepilab/people.php" target="_blank">Ioannidis</a>, an epidemiologist at Tufts University School of Medicine in Boston and the University of Ioannina School of Medicine in Greece, studied the question. He examined the most-cited clinical studies published in the top three medical journals between 1990 and 2000 to see how well researchers’ initial claims held up against subsequent research. His findings, published in JAMA, show that the key claims of nearly one-third (14 out of 49) of the original research studies he examined were either false or exaggerated. Small study size, design flaws, publication bias (failure to publish negative results or duplication of positive results), drug-industry influence, and the play of chance were among the problems Ioannidis found that caused false or exaggerated claims.</p>
<p>Studies can be designed and interpreted in ways that make even ineffective drugs seem like lifesavers, says Curt Furberg, a well-known cardiovascular epidemiologist and former chief of the clinical trials branch at the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute in Bethesda, Maryland. Furberg, a tall, square-faced man with a Swedish accent, wants more objectivity in medical research. “We need <a href="http://medicine.plosjournals.org/perlserv/?request=get-document&amp;doi=10.1371/journal.pmed.0010060" target="_blank">more publicly funded studies</a>,” he says, adding that manufacturer-sponsored research tends to minimize risks and exaggerate benefits.</p>
<p>A score of studies support his opinion. Among them is <a href="http://jama.ama-assn.org/cgi/content/full/289/4/454?maxtoshow=&amp;HITS=10&amp;hits=10&amp;RESULTFORMAT=1&amp;author1=Gross&amp;andorexacttitle=and&amp;andorexacttitleabs=and&amp;andorexactfulltext=and&amp;searchid=1&amp;FIRSTINDEX=10&amp;sortspec=relevance&amp;fdate=1/1/2000&amp;resourcetype=HWCIT" target="_blank">a 2003 analysis by Cary P. Gross</a>, an associate professor of medicine at Yale School of Medicine, that was published in JAMA. In his survey, one study found that industry-sponsored research was positive 87 percent of the time compared with 65 percent positive for research that was not industry sponsored. According to Gross, the evidence was overwhelming that “industry sponsorship was likely to yield pro-industry results.” A 2006 analysis published in the American Journal of Psychiatry found that 90 percent of manufacturer-sponsored studies of antipsychotic drugs led to claims that the study drug was as good as, or superior to, every other drug in its class. Shannon Brownlee, an award-winning medical writer based in Washington, D.C., ascribed this to the “<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Wobegon_effect" target="_blank">Lake Wobegon effect</a>,” which renders every drug “above average.”</p>
<p>Furberg’s efforts to debunk overly enthusiastic interpretations of medical studies have led to occasional clashes with his colleagues. In 2004 the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) was preparing to hold hearings on the safety of painkillers known as COX-2 inhibitors, including Vioxx, which David Graham, an official in the FDA’s Office of Drug Safety, said may have caused an estimated 39,000 to 60,000 heart-attack deaths in just five years. At the time, Furberg was a member of the FDA Advisory Committee on Drug Safety and Risk Management. But after he told The New York Times that the COX-2 inhibitor Bextra also caused heart attacks, the agency made a surprising move: <a href="http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C01E0D7133FF93BA25752C1A9629C8B63&amp;sec=health" target="_blank">It removed Furberg</a> from the advisory panel. Sandra Kweder, acting director of the Office of New Drugs, Center for Drug Evaluation and Research at the FDA, told a reporter that Furberg’s comments showed he could not be objective. Furberg now asks, “If bias was a concern, why did they allow 10 advisory members with ties to the manufacturers to be seated?” He was reinstated to the panel two days later and vindicated when the FDA announced that it had asked Pfizer to voluntarily withdraw Bextra from the market.</p>
<div>+++</div>
<div>
<p>Part of the difficulty in detecting drug side effects, Furberg says, has to do with study size. Drugs go through <a href="http://www.marrow.org/PATIENT/Undrstnd_Disease_Treat/Undrstnd_Treat_Opt/Lrn_Clinical_Trials/What_is_a_Clinical_Trial/index.html" target="_blank">a regimen of tests</a> prior to receiving approval from the FDA. During the first two stages, called Phase I and II trials, an experimental drug is tested on just a few hundred volunteers to look for side effects. If no serious problems are detected, the drug is tested for efficacy in a Phase III trial. But efficacy trials often involve only several hundred to a few thousand patients. And while a study of 200 to 300 arthritis patients is large enough to show whether a new drug relieves pain, just one such study isn’t large enough to pick up less-common—but potentially deadly—side effects. Furberg says, “If only one in a thousand patients will die from a heart attack, an efficacy study of 200 or even 2,000 patients is simply too small to get a reliable answer about rare side effects.” Seemingly rare side effects can take tens of thousands of lives when millions of prescriptions are written.</p>
<blockquote class="pullquote"><p>How do today’s medical       “breakthroughs” become tomorrow’s discredited science</p></blockquote>
<p>Such limitations in a study’s design can escape detection even by top peer reviewers and medical editors. Marcia Angell, the former editor-in-chief of The New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM), says that most doctors are ill equipped to critically assess the conclusions of researchers. A trim woman with a warm smile, Angell leans forward in her seat at her home in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and says, “Let me tell you the dirty secret of medical journals: It is very hard to find enough articles to publish. With a rejection rate of 90 percent for original research, we were hard pressed to find 10 percent that were worth publishing. So you end up publishing weak studies because there is so much bad work out there.” Doctors, Angell says, are not skeptical enough about what they read in top journals. “They should say, ‘I don’t believe this; prove it to me.’”</p>
<p>The rest of the media don’t get any better marks. <a href="http://www.sjmc.umn.edu/aboutus/fac_gschwitzer.html" target="_blank">Gary Schwitzer</a>, director of graduate studies in health journalism at the University of Minnesota School of Journalism, examined 400 medical news stories that were carried by 57 of the top print and broadcast media. “The majority failed to adequately discuss costs, quantify harms and benefits, and examine the quality of the studies,” Schwitzer says. Many quoted a sole source and failed to report potential financial conflicts. Schwitzer concluded that media reports give “a kid-in-the-candy-store portrayal, where everything is made to look amazing, harmless, and without a price tag.” Patients themselves “should not escape notice as willing collaborators, wishing for magic potions and taking drug company money to support consumer organizations,” Schwitzer continues.</p>
<p>Phil Brewer, the doctor whose stroke patient died after being treated with tPA, says media portrayals of new medicines are often “irrationally exuberant.” He points to <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/28/health/28stroke.html?scp=1&amp;sq=Lifesaving+Opportunities+Missed%2C+Before+and+After+Stroke&amp;st=nyt" target="_blank">a May 2007 article</a> in <em>The New York Times</em> that he says typifies the problem. The article, about stroke victims, said that the clot-buster “tPA was shown in 1996 to save lives.” Yet in 2001, the American Heart Association (AHA) had withdrawn the claim that the drug “saves lives” from its promotion of tPA for stroke after the group was challenged to provide scientific evidence to support that claim. The AHA was also the subject of scrutiny when it was revealed that in the decade prior to its recommendation that doctors use tPA for stroke victims, the heart association had received $11 million from Genentech, tPA’s manufacturer.</p>
<p>The same <em>Times</em> article quoted a number of doctors saying that too few stroke patients were receiving tPA, yet failed to mention that many of these same doctors had received funding from <a href="http://www.gene.com/gene/index.jsp?q=genentech&amp;ie=utf-8&amp;oe=utf-8&amp;aq=t&amp;rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&amp;client=firefox-a" target="_blank">Genentech</a>. Nor did the article give a hint of the ferocious battle among doctors about the safety and efficacy of tPA: While a number of professional associations endorsed the drug, many others, such as the American Academy of Emergency Medicine, said it should not be considered the standard of care for acute stroke.</p>
<p>Asked about this reporting, Barbara Strauch, health editor of <em>The Times</em>, responded, “While some researchers had said in interviews that they believed the drug saved lives, our article incorrectly stated that the study had made that conclusion.” Strauch said the paper would publish a correction—which it did this past April, nearly a year later. (This was done in response to DISCOVER’s inquiries.) She added, “It is also true that some researchers quoted in the article, like many stroke researchers and many who study other diseases, are funded by and receive honoraria from the pharmaceutical industry. However, the main sources for our article were researchers at the <a href="http://www.ninds.nih.gov/" target="_blank">National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke</a> (NINDS), who, the National Institutes of Health says, do not take money from drug manufacturers.”</p>
<p>“What you read in the media are these stories of a stroke patient getting tPA and miraculously improving within minutes,” Brewer says. “But we’ve all seen that happen in the ER, even before tPA was ever invented.” After his patient died, Brewer, wary of drawing conclusions on the basis of a single case, wanted to make sense of the data about tPA. Even though a landmark 1995 study conducted by NINDS showed that 12 to 13 of every 100 treated patients had less disability, Brewer says that “it was hard to put the conflicting [study] results together and determine whether the benefits really did outweigh the risks.” So, like many physicians, he turned to the articles and analyses of Jerome Hoffman, a professor of medicine and emergency medicine at UCLA. “Dr. Hoffman has a brilliant mind,” Brewer says. “He is listened to and trusted by more emergency physicians than anyone I know.” An authority on medical studies, Hoffman, it turns out, was also the lone dissenting member of the AHA panel that recommended tPA for stroke.</p>
<div>+++</div>
<p>Tall, white-haired, and wearing thick glasses, <a href="http://www.uclahealth.org/body.cfm?id=458&amp;action=detail&amp;ref=6282" target="_blank">Hoffman</a> looks the part of an elder statesman of medicine. He says he became interested in the interpretation of medical literature when he was just starting out as a resident physician at UCLA. He read studies and their interpretations voraciously, and eventually other physicians began coming to his talks to residents and medical students on how to interpret the medical literature. “Some studies just didn’t make sense to me,” he says. “I was reading all these things that came to opposite conclusions. They couldn’t all be right.” Besides, Hoffman says, “there were studies that didn’t represent what I was seeing in clinical practice.”</p>
<p>When the NINDS study was published in December 1995, Hoffman paid attention. “It was a big deal,” he says. “If <a href="http://www.americanheart.org/presenter.jhtml?identifier=4751" target="_blank">tPA </a>worked, it would be a real advance over what we could offer patients during an acute stroke.” But, he says, “you [should] never believe one study—especially of a drug that has only a small benefit, and especially a study that is contradicted by other studies, as was the case here.” Hoffman is also critical of a study that Genentech says supports the NINDS trial findings. He contends that this study, <a href="http://www.strokecenter.org/trials/TrialDetail.aspx?tid=296" target="_blank">known as SITS-MOST</a>, shows “how study design and spin can inflate perceived benefit.” This is because “no patient with a severe stroke was allowed into SITS-MOST—by design—so the patients who did get included were virtually certain to do well as a group, no matter what treatment they did or didn’t get. Comparing them to the much sicker patients in the big trials isn’t like comparing apples with oranges—it’s comparing apples with elephants.”</p>
<blockquote class="pullquote"><p>One way to make drugs look better or safer is to report only successful studies         while ignoring those with bad results.</p></blockquote>
<p>Hoffman says that the truth in any drug study can be camouflaged by how it is reported. “One way that’s been done—for many treatments, and not just [clot-busters]—is to use combination end points.” Here’s how it works: A single drug can be tested for a variety of outcomes; for example, <a href="http://www.mayoclinic.com/health/statins/CL00010" target="_blank">a cholesterol-lowering drug</a> can be tested for its effect on cholesterol level, blood pressure, and/or rates of heart failure, heart attack, or death. By combining two or more of these outcomes to create a single category, you can say it helped “A and B” even if it only helped A and not B. For example, although there was no statistically significant effect from tPA in the NINDS trial on the number of patients who died, there was a small decrease in disability for those who survived. With the two factors combined, there was technically a decrease in the combination end point of “death and disability.” From there, it’s a short step to the incorrect assumption that death and disability were each decreased—an assumption made by many physicians and patients.</p>
<p>David L. Brown, chief of <a href="http://www.hsc.stonybrook.edu/som/internalmed/cardiology/index.html" target="_blank">the division of cardiovascular medicine</a> at the State University of New York, Stony Brook School of Medicine, calls the use of combination end points a “brilliant marketing tool.” Brown says that while combination end points have a legitimate purpose when researchers are testing drugs for a rare or infrequent outcome, far too often researchers use the information in ways that “mislead both doctors and the general public.”</p>
<p>Another way to make drugs look better and safer than they are is to report or cite only successful studies while ignoring those with bad outcomes. The problem of cherry-picking studies is a very real one, <a href="http://discovermagazine.com/2007/jul/health-trends-alternatives-for-people-who-are-anti-antidepressants">especially for antidepressants</a>, says Erick Turner, a former FDA reviewer, now an assistant professor of psychiatry at the Oregon Health &amp; Science University. Turner recently published research in NEJM showing that “when studies of antidepressants were negative, they were reported as negative only 8 percent of the time—but when studies were positive, they were reported as positive 97 percent of the time.”</p>
<p>Genentech acknowledges that no controlled study has ever shown—or been conducted to show—that tPA “saves lives” in cases of acute stroke. What the NINDS study showed, Genentech spokesperson Krysta Pellegrino says, is that “patients were at least 30 percent more likely to have a decrease in stroke-related disability three months after treatment compared with placebo.” Although Genentech admits that high-risk patients were excluded from analysis in SITS-MOST, Pellegrino says the company believes the data from that study “add to the body of evidence that supports the conclusion that tPA is safe and effective for the treatment of acute stroke.”</p>
<div>+++</div>
<blockquote class="pullquote"><p>“Dying with corrected cholesterol is not a successful outcome,” John Abramson says.</p></blockquote>
<p>Prescription for Change</p>
<p>Ken Johnson, senior vice president of Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA), says that FDA drug approval procedures are “the gold standard of the world” and that the United States has “one of the strongest drug safety records.” He acknowledges, though, that “adverse reactions are sometimes not detected until a medicine has been approved and made available to an entire population,” adding, “That’s why the postmarket surveillance system is so important.” He notes that under the <a href="http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=h110-3580" target="_blank">Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act of 2007</a>, the agency has new authority to “require additional postmarket studies and make faster changes to product labeling.” The intent is to reduce the time it takes to detect adverse drug reactions and protect the public.</p>
<p>An adverse reaction is exactly what Duane Graveline suspects happened to him. Graveline, a former NASA astronaut and flight surgeon, suffered a bizarre episode in 1999 shortly after he was prescribed the <a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/health/diseasesconditionsandhealthtopics/lipitor_drug/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier" target="_blank">popular statin drug Lipitor</a> for his elevated cholesterol. Just six weeks after he began taking the drug, the normally very active and healthy Graveline plunged down the rabbit hole when he abruptly lost his memory. His wife rushed him to the hospital, where doctors examined him carefully but could find no medical or psychiatric problem. His brain scan showed no sign of a stroke or brain disorder. Then, almost as quickly as his memory had disappeared, it came back after just six hours, without any treatment. Doctors termed the strange episode transient global amnesia, or TGA. The cause? Unknown.</p>
<p>Graveline’s case was certainly unusual. Most people with sudden memory loss have suffered a blow to the head, a stroke, or some other medical problem. But Graveline had no history of medical or psychiatric troubles. This made him wonder: Could the episode have been a side effect of Lipitor? Deciding not to test fate, Grave­line stopped taking the drug. For the next year he was fine. But when his annual astronaut’s physical exam rolled around, he was told that his cholesterol level had crept up again, and his doctor urged him to restart the Lipitor.</p>
<p>Graveline, still uncertain about the connection between the drug and TGA, complied. Within 10 weeks he suffered another, even more severe episode of amnesia. His wife found him wandering outside their home, unable to recognize her and unaware even that he was a physician. That episode also resolved without treatment. “That’s when I decided never to take statins again,” he said. That’s also when Graveline began scouring the medical literature for an explanation of what had happened. What he found troubled him: There were few studies examining statins’ side effects on memory, even though cholesterol, he says, plays an important role in brain function. Graveline worried: What if he had had an episode while he was driving? What if a pilot developed TGA during flight?</p>
<p>Graveline’s research eventually brought him into contact with <a href="http://www.cnl.salk.edu/%7Ebgolomb/" target="_blank">Beatrice Golomb</a>, an associate professor of medicine at the University of California, San Diego School of Medicine. Golomb, a dark-haired whiz kid who graduated from the University of Southern California with highest honors at age 19, is an M.D. with a Ph.D. in biology and has been studying cholesterol and statins for more than a decade under research grants given by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and the Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation.</p>
<p>Golomb says that Graveline’s episodes of TGA, and other cases like his, raise questions about the ways statins can affect memory. Her research, she says, shows that although statins can reduce the risk of heart attack, they may also have <a href="http://www.statinanswers.com/effects.htm" target="_blank">serious side effects</a>. In Golomb’s opinion, the potential benefits of statins may not outweigh their risks except among middle-aged men who have heart disease—or who are at high risk for it. The only way to weigh risks against benefits, she says, is to evaluate all-cause morbidity (sickness) and all-cause mortality (death).</p>
<p>Christopher Loder, a spokesperson for Pfizer, the maker of Lipitor, says that studies of the drug were “not designed nor powered to look specifically at all-cause mortality.” The studies, he says, “were powered and designed to look at a composite end point consisting of heart attack or death from coronary causes.” In addition, Loder says, “There is overwhelming clinical evidence to support the benefit of Lipitor. All statins have been shown to reduce LDL cholesterol.”</p>
<p>Golomb says one reason many doctors overlook risks and believe statins to be safe is that most controlled studies of statins wind up excluding people who originally begin to participate in a study but stop taking the drug because they experience problems from it; these test participants are then dropped from the study as “noncompliant.” Confusion arises, Golomb says, “because the absence of evidence that statins cause harm—having excluded those who would have permitted detection of harm—is interpreted wrongly as evidence of absence of harm. And the treatment is generalized to a larger population with a very different risk-to-benefit profile.”</p>
<p>John Abramson, a clinical instructor at Harvard Medical School and author of <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Overdosed-America-Promise-American-Medicine/dp/0060568526" target="_blank">Overdo$ed America: The Broken Promise of American Medicine</a></em>, says he grew concerned when he learned that the authors of professional guidelines recommending an expanded use of statins had ties to the drugs’ manufacturers. So, Abramson, a tall, dark-haired man with owlish glasses, decided to review the study data. What he found stunned him. Statins could reduce heart attacks and strokes—but only in a small fraction of the people taking the drugs. “Doctors give statins in one of two ways,” Abramson explains. “The first way is to give the drugs to people with elevated cholesterol as primary prevention—to prevent a heart attack, stroke, or other serious cardiovascular event. [These are] people who have never suffered any of those events. The other way to give statins is as secondary prevention, after people have had one of those events or develop diabetes.”</p>
<p>Despite broad recommendations in the National Cholesterol Education Program guidelines, Abramson found that there were <a href="http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/01/29/healthscience/29well.php" target="_blank">no studies that showed statins were beneficial</a> for primary prevention for women of any age or men over 65. Yet more than three-quarters of people taking statins take them for primary prevention—meaning that many patients stand to gain no benefit at all. Abramson, who with a colleague published his findings in the British medical journal <em><a href="http://www.thelancet.com/" target="_blank">The Lancet</a></em>, says that even when statins are used for men at the highest risk, “you have to treat about 238 men for one year to prevent one heart attack.”</p>
<p>Another problem with statin studies, according to Abramson, is that many do not measure clinically and critically important outcomes like heart attacks, serious adverse events, or all-cause mortality. Instead they measure surrogate markers—outcomes that are associated with a risk of disease—but not a bad outcome itself. In the case of statins, the surrogate marker most commonly used is cholesterol levels. If a drug reduces cholesterol, it is said to be “effective.” But lowering cholesterol doesn’t necessarily mean a drug will reduce the bad outcomes people are worried about—such as death or heart attack.</p>
<p>This was the issue in last winter’s congressional investigation into the nonstatin cholesterol-lowering drug ezetimibe, sold as Zetia and contained in Vytorin. Hearings in January revealed that the release of negative results of a clinical trial of ezetimibe had been delayed. The drug, while lowering cholesterol effectively, failed to slow the progression of carotid artery plaque. While manufacturers Merck and Schering-Plough delayed the negative study’s release for more than 18 months, ezetimibe had turned into a blockbuster drug, even though it had never been shown to reduce heart attacks or deaths.</p>
<p>“You can lower cholesterol levels with a drug, yet provide no health benefits whatsoever,” Abramson says. “And dying with a corrected cholesterol level is not a successful outcome in my book.” Suddenly Abramson, who had taken many hits for his critiques of cholesterol-lowering drugs, was joined by physicians calling for <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/07/business/07trials.html" target="_blank">more openness in research</a> and more careful examination of the evidence before drugs are put on the market.</p>
<p>Jerome Hoffman of UCLA agrees, saying it is a shame that in the face of so many medical and pharmacological advances there is such an exposure to risk. “It’s ironic that one of the unintended consequences of the publication of so many untenable claims, based on poorly done research and spin, is that it can obscure true advances when they do occur,” he says. Citing the number of great successes medical research has brought us—lifesaving drugs from penicillin to insulin, along with invaluable treatments and medical devices—he adds, “It’s one more reason why we have to be appropriately skeptical, unafraid to speak out about misleading claims, and insistent upon holding clinical research to the standards of science.”</p>
<p>Read the related article <a href="http://discovermagazine.com/2008/jul/20-wonder-drugs-that-can-kill/20-drugmakers-prepare-for-a-smackdown">Drugmakers: Prepare for a Smackdown</a>.<br />
=====================================================</p>
<h3><a href="http://discovermagazine.com/2008/jul/20-wonder-drugs-that-can-kill/20-drugmakers-prepare-for-a-smackdown" target="_blank">Drugmakers: Prepare for a Smackdown</a></h3>
<p><span class="date">06.20.2008</span></p>
<h4>The FDA plans to lay heavier regulations on Big Pharma.</h4>
<p><span class="author">by Linda Marsa</span></p>
<div>
<p>For years the Food and Drug Administration has failed to adequately monitor the pharmaceutical industry. That conclusion by a special committee at the Institute of Medicine in a September 2006 report titled “<a href="http://www.fda.gov/oc/reports/iom013007.html" target="_blank">The Future of Drug Safety</a>” helped prompt a sweeping reform bill that became law last September. The Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act of 2007 gives the FDA the dollars and legal clout it needs to make a number of important fixes. Its key provisions and other new initiatives include these:</p>
<p>• The FDA will hire 1,300 new employees, with at least 400 dedicated to drug review.</p>
<p>• The agency has earmarked money for the development of a network of organizations to monitor the safety of FDA-approved drugs. Assembled and led by the FDA, the network participants—which include health-care insurers and providers—will have the ability to search millions of their own database records at the agency’s request. This surveillance system is built to identify problems, such as side effects of pharmaceuticals and medical therapies, as they emerge.</p>
<p>• All clinical trials of every FDA-approved drug must be <a href="http://clinicaltrials.gov/" target="_blank">registered on an NIH Web site</a>, with results of those trials also posted.</p>
<p>• The FDA can now compel companies to do more studies as warranted even after drugs are approved.</p>
<p>• Penalties of up to $10 million may be imposed for violations of the new REMS (risk evaluation and mitigation strategy) provisions, designed to manage a known or potential serious risk associated with a drug or biological product.</p>
<p>• The agency can now demand more rapid changes to drug warning labels if new side effects emerge.</p>
<p>• Print drug ads now need to have a hotline number consumers can call to report bad reactions. TV commercials must present side-effect warnings in a “clear, conspicuous, and neutral manner”—a mandate the agency is currently defining.</p>
<p>While these are positive steps, it may be years before they are fully implemented, and many people question just how great their impact will be. “Having the authority and using it wisely are two different things,” says the chairman of the Cleveland Clinic’s department of cardiovascular medicine, <a href="http://www.time.com/time/specials/2007/time100/article/0,28804,1595326_1595329_1616143,00.html" target="_blank">Steven Nissen</a>, who advised Congress on the FDA overhaul. “We’ll just have to wait and see how well the FDA uses its new powers.”</p>
<p>Read the related article <a href="http://discovermagazine.com/2008/jul/20-drugmakers-prepare-for-a-smackdown/20-wonder-drugs-that-can-kill">Wonder Drugs That Can Kill</a>.</div>
</div>
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		<title>Whole grain &#8212; NOT!</title>
		<link>http://pragmasynesi.wordpress.com/2008/07/25/whole-grain-not/</link>
		<comments>http://pragmasynesi.wordpress.com/2008/07/25/whole-grain-not/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Jul 2008 18:26:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>pragmasynesi</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[diet]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[health]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[nutrition]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[misleading advertising]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[whole grain]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://pragmasynesi.wordpress.com/?p=106</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Nothing pisses me off more than deliberately misleading advertising.  Want to eat healthier and buy whole grain  products?  Good luck &#8212; this article explains why no one knows how much whole grain there is in some products.
From Business Week:
July 23, 2008, 12:01AM EST 
How Whole Is Whole Grain?
A settlement between Sara Lee [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class='snap_preview'><br /><p>Nothing pisses me off more than deliberately misleading advertising.  Want to eat healthier and buy whole grain  products?  Good luck &#8212; this article explains why no one knows how much whole grain there is in some products.</p>
<p>From Business Week:<br />
<span>July 23, 2008, 12:01AM EST </span></p>
<h3><a href="http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/jul2008/db20080722_962380.htm" target="_blank">How Whole Is Whole Grain?</a></h3>
<h4>A settlement between Sara Lee and the Center for Science in the Public Interest may lead to more accurate claims about whole grains on food labels</h4>
<p><span id="more-106"></span>
<p class="byline">by <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/print/bios/Pallavi_Gogoi.htm">Pallavi Gogoi</a></p>
<p>Hundreds of bread and cereal brands claim to be &#8220;whole grain.&#8221; But how many are &#8220;wholly&#8221; made from whole grain?</p>
<p>Thanks to some fancy footwork by food companies, that distinction eludes most consumers. However, the difference now has tripped up one of the big food companies, Sara Lee (<a rel="ticker" href="http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?symbol=SLE">SLE</a>), as well. On July 21, Sara Lee agreed to change the labels on its popular Soft &amp; Smooth bread to make clear it is made of just 30% whole grains. That is part of a settlement with the Washington (D.C.)-based consumer advocacy group the Center for Science in the Public Interest. The group had threatened to sue Sara Lee in December, saying that the &#8220;whole grain goodness&#8221; sign splashed on Soft &amp; Smooth packaging was misleading because the bread was made primarily of refined white flour.</p>
<p>&#8220;The food industry&#8217;s term &#8216;made with whole grain&#8217; is actually code for made with very little or some whole grain,&#8221; says Bonnie Liebman, director of nutrition at the Center for Science in the Public Interest.</p>
<h4>Grains for Good Health</h4>
<p>Sara Lee spokeswoman Sara Matheu says the company had been considering the new labels as early as last fall even before meeting with the advocacy group. &#8220;We adamantly deny allegations made by CSPI,&#8221; she says. &#8220;We are proud of the 10g of whole grains per serving this transitional bread offers our consumers.…The blend of whole wheat and enriched wheat flour is designed to help consumers increase their consumption of whole-grain breads without a radical change in taste and consistency.&#8221;</p>
<p>The dispute points up the growing popularity of whole-grain breads and cereals. The whole-grains drumbeat started in the U.S. after 2001, when concerns over increasing obesity rates grew, and dieticians and nutritionists began looking for ways to improve Americans&#8217; diets. In 2003, an Agriculture Dept. analysis found that Americans were consuming an average of 10 servings of grain a day, but just a little over one serving of that was whole grain.</p>
<p>Since then, many studies have found that whole grains are good for health (among other things, the high-fiber content benefits the digestive tract). A study released in February by a team of researchers at Pennsylvania State University found that diets with high amounts of whole grains help achieve weight loss and reduce the risk of chronic diseases such as diabetes and cardiovascular disease, and even lower blood pressure. &#8220;Whole grains are known to benefit the digestive system, and they also contain vitamins and minerals, which are lost when they are refined,&#8221; says Marion Nestle, professor of nutrition at New York University and author of several books, including <cite>Food Politics</cite> and <cite>What to Eat</cite>.</p>
<p>The food industry has responded with a plethora of new products that contain at least some whole grain.</p>
<h4>Cocoa Puffs with Fiber</h4>
<p>Consumer products researcher Mintel reports that new food products claiming to be made with &#8220;whole grains&#8221; more than doubled, to 361, in 2005, when they were recommended in dietary guidelines from the USDA. Whole-grain products rose to 633 in 2007. Another 492 such products have been launched just in the first half of this year, with breakfast cereals and baked goods topping the list.</p>
<p>Of course, how many of those products are made wholly from whole grain is anybody&#8217;s guess.</p>
<p>&#8220;The food industry is notorious for making nutrition claims even when reality is far removed from the appearance, and whole grains is a classic example,&#8221; says Kelly Brownell, director of the Rudd Center for Food Policy &amp; Obesity at Yale University. &#8220;Sara Lee, General Mills (<a rel="ticker" href="http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?symbol=GIS">GIS</a>), and others will make small changes in the food and make them appear to be big.&#8221;</p>
<p>In 2004, General Mills, maker of such popular cereals as Cheerios, Cocoa Puffs, and Lucky Charms, said it was converting its entire cereal lineup to whole grain—a claim it now makes in its ads. But few if any of the cereals are 100% made of whole grain. In some cases, the cereals consist mostly of refined flour. &#8220;After that, Cocoa Puffs went from zero grams of fiber per serving to 1g of fiber—that&#8217;s how small the change was,&#8221; says NYU&#8217;s Nestle.</p>
<p>General Mills spokeswoman Heidi Geller says all the company&#8217;s cereals contain at least 8g of whole grain in each serving, with its flagship Cheerios containing 23g of whole grain. Cocoa Puffs contain 10g, and Honey Nut Cheerios, 14g. However, Geller couldn&#8217;t provide the percentage of whole wheat vs. processed wheat in General Mills&#8217; cereals. The USDA recommends the consumption of 48g of whole grain per day.</p>
<h4>Massaging the Marketing</h4>
<p>So why don&#8217;t food companies just make their products with whole grains? For one thing, white flour is easier to bake and has a longer shelf life since it doesn&#8217;t spoil quickly, says Nestle. Then there are the obvious differences in consumer preferences: Processed flour is lighter and softer than whole wheat. &#8220;If consumers want it, only the 100% whole grain counts as the real thing,&#8221; says Nestle.</p>
<p>The government, for its part, is very aware of how misleading some marketing claims can be. In a statement drafted in 2006, the Food &amp; Drug Administration recognized that consumers could be confused by unqualified &#8220;whole grain&#8221; claims for products that contain a mixture of whole grain and refined grain.</p>
<p>The FDA stated that manufacturers could make factual statements about the amount of whole grain in a product, including claims such as &#8220;10g of whole grains,&#8221; or percentage claims such as &#8220;100% whole grain,&#8221; as long as they were true.</p>
<p>Manufacturers have gotten around that by stating that their products are &#8220;made with whole grain,&#8221; without saying exactly how much. &#8220;It&#8217;s obviously not untruthful to say that a product is made with whole grain,&#8221; says William Hallman, associate professor and director of the Food Policy Institute at Rutgers University in New Jersey. &#8220;But the question is whether it&#8217;s substantial enough to make a difference.&#8221;</p>
<p class="tagline"><a href="mailto:Pallavi_Gogoi@businessweek.com">Gogoi</a> is a contributing writer for BusinessWeek.com.</p>
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		<title>Start with vinaigrette; finish with fruit</title>
		<link>http://pragmasynesi.wordpress.com/2008/07/24/start-with-vinaigrette-finish-with-fruit/</link>
		<comments>http://pragmasynesi.wordpress.com/2008/07/24/start-with-vinaigrette-finish-with-fruit/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Jul 2008 12:55:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>pragmasynesi</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[diet]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[health]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[nutrition]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[vinegar]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[wine]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[fruit]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[antioxidants]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://pragmasynesi.wordpress.com/?p=103</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[If you want to control your blood sugar level (and possibly even lose weight), vinegar is your friend.  And if you want to avoid cancer-causing damage by meat, red wine (or fruit in general) will neutralize some of the nasties before it even gets into your bloodstream.  So start your meal with a [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class='snap_preview'><br /><p>If you want to control your blood sugar level (and possibly even lose weight), vinegar is your friend.  And if you want to avoid cancer-causing damage by meat, red wine (or fruit in general) will neutralize some of the nasties before it even gets into your bloodstream.  So start your meal with a vinaigrette salad; have some wine with your meat and fruit for dessert.</p>
<p>Here are the two articles supporting the above.</p>
<p><span id="more-103"></span>=======================================================</p>
<h3><a href="http://www.diabetesincontrol.com/modules.php?name=News&amp;file=article&amp;sid=2475"><span>A Spoonful of Vinegar Helps the Sugar Go Down</span></a></h3>
<p><span style="font-size:small;font-family:arial;"><span style="font-size:xx-small;font-family:arial;color:#035d8a;">on Tuesday, February 08 @ 14:57:23 CST</span></span></p>
<p><span><em>2 tablespoons of vinegar before a meal even as part of a vinaigrette salad dressing—will dramatically reduce the spike in blood concentrations of insulin and glucose that come after a meal.</em></span></p>
<p><span><strong>A    Spoonful of Vinegar Helps the Sugar Go Down</strong><br />
Carol Johnston is a professor of nutrition at Arizona State University’s    East campus. When she started developing menus to help prevent and control diabetes,    she began with a high-protein, low-carbohydrate diet. The diet worked amazingly    well, but it involved major changes from the way people usually eat. Johnston    feared they would give up and start downing Twinkies in no time. She wondered if there was an alternative.</span></p>
<p>Johnston struck gold while reading through some older studies on diabetes. Actually,    she struck vinegar.</p>
<p>Her studies indicate that 2 tablespoons of vinegar before a meal—perhaps,    as part of a vinaigrette salad dressing—will dramatically reduce the spike    in blood concentrations of insulin and glucose that come after a meal. In people    with type 2 diabetes, these spikes can be excessive and can foster complications,    including heart disease</p>
<p>In Johnston&#8217;s initial study, about one-third of the 29 volunteers had been diagnosed    with type 2 diabetes, another third had signs that they could become diabetic,    and the rest were healthy. The scientists gave each participant the vinegar    dose or a placebo to drink immediately before they ate a high-carbohydrate breakfast    consisting of orange juice, a bagel, and butter. A week later, each volunteer    came back for the opposite premeal treatment and then the same breakfast. After    both meals, the researchers sampled blood from the participants.</p>
<p>Although all three groups in the study had better blood readings after meals    begun with vinegar cocktails, the people with signs of future diabetes—prediabetic    symptoms—reaped the biggest gains. For instance, vinegar cut their blood-glucose    rise in the first hour after a meal by about half, compared with readings after    a placebo premeal drink.<br />
In contrast, blood-glucose concentrations were only about 25 percent better    after people with diabetes drank vinegar. In addition, people with prediabetic    symptoms ended up with lower blood glucose than even healthy volunteers, after    both groups drank vinegar.</p>
<p>In these tests, vinegar had an effect on volunteers&#8217; blood comparable to what    might be expected from antidiabetes drugs, such as metformin, the researchers    reported January in Diabetes Care. A follow-up study has now turned up an added—and    totally unexpected—benefit from vinegar: moderate weight loss.</p>
<p>Both findings should come as welcome news during this season when sweet and    caloric treats taunt diabetics, who face true health risks from indulging in    too many carbs.</p>
<p>Johnston was looking for possible diet modifications that would make meals less    risky for people with diabetes. While reviewing research published earlier by    others, she ran across reports from about 2 decades ago that suggesting that    vinegar limits glucose and insulin spikes in a person&#8217;s blood after a meal.</p>
<p>A few research groups had conducted limited follow-up trials. For instance,    Johnston points to a 2001 paper in which researchers at Lund University in Sweden    evaluated pickles—cucumbers preserved in vinegar—as a dietary supplement    to lower the blood-sugar rise in healthy people after a meal. The Swedish team,    led by Elin M. Östman, reported that pickles dramatically blunted the blood-sugar    spike after a high-carb breakfast. Fresh cukes didn&#8217;t.</p>
<p>&#8220;I became really intrigued,&#8221; Johnston says, because adding vinegar    to the diet would be simple &#8220;and wouldn&#8217;t require counting how many carbs    you ate.&#8221; At first, she attempted to replicate findings by others, focusing    specifically on people with diabetes or prediabetic symptoms.</p>
<p>When these individuals showed clear benefits from vinegar after a single meal,    Johnston&#8217; group initiated a trial to evaluate longer-term effects. It also explored    vinegar&#8217; effect on cholesterol concentrations in blood. The Arizona State scientists    had hypothesized that by preventing digestion of carbs in the stomach, vinegar    might cause carbohydrate molecules to instead ferment in the colon, a process    that signals the liver to synthesize less cholesterol.</p>
<p>So, in one trial, Johnston had half of the volunteers take a 2-tablespoon dose    of vinegar prior to each of two meals daily for 4 weeks. The others were told    to avoid vinegar. All were weighed before and after the trial.</p>
<p>As it turns out, cholesterol values didn&#8217;t change in either group. To Johnston&#8217;    surprise, however, &#8220;here was actually about a 2-pound weight loss, on average,    over the 4 weeks in the vinegar group.&#8221; In fact, unlike the control group,    none in the vinegar cohort gained any weight, and a few people lost up to 4    pounds. Average weight remained constant in the group not drinking vinegar.</p>
<p>Johnston would now like to repeat the trial in a larger group of individuals    to confirm the finding, but that study is currently on hold.</p>
<p>Why? To no one&#8217;s astonishment, the study volunteers didn&#8217;t like drinking vinegar    straight—even flavored, apple-cider vinegar. Indeed, Johnston says, &#8220;I    would prefer eating pickled foods or getting . . . vinegar in a salad dressing.&#8221;</p>
<p>Now, the scientists are developing a less objectionable, encapsulated form of    vinegar and testing its efficacy. Although there are commercially available    vinegar dietary supplements, Johnston notes that they &#8220;don&#8217;t appear to    contain acetic acid,&#8221; and based on studies by others, she suspects that&#8217;s    the antidiabetic ingredient in the vinegar.<br />
<span style="font-size:xx-small;">Diabetes Care Jan, 2005</span></p>
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<p><span><a></a></span></p>
<p class="fly-title"><a>Wine and health</a></p>
<h3><a href="http://www.economist.com/science/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11662560">Of sommeliers and stomachs</a></h3>
<p class="info">Jul 3rd 2008<br />
From <em>The Economist</em> print edition</p>
<h4>Red wine exercises its benefits before it enters the bloodstream</h4>
<p>FINE food sings on the palate, but pairing it with the right wine creates a chorus. Among those in the know, the plum, chocolate and spice flavours of Cabernet Sauvignons, Merlots, Pinot Noirs and Sangioveses best accentuate the rich flavours of red meats. Now, however, a group of researchers led by Joseph Kanner of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem has discovered that pairing red wines like these with red meat appears to be more than just a matter of taste. If the two mix in the stomach, compounds in the wine thwart the formation of harmful chemicals that are released when meat is digested.</p>
<p>The idea that red wine is actually good for your health is irresistible to the average tippler. But it appears to be true. In particular, red wines are rich in polyphenols, a group of powerful antioxidants that are thought to protect against cancer and heart disease by destroying molecules that would otherwise damage cells. How the polyphenols in wine exercise their beneficial effects, though, has been mysterious. That is because they do not seem to travel in any quantity from the stomach into the bloodstream.</p>
<p>The answer, Dr Kanner has found, lies in the stomach itself. The digestion of high-fat foods such as red meat releases oxidising toxins. One in particular, called malondialdehyde, is implicated in arteriosclerosis, cancer, diabetes and a host of other serious diseases. Dr Kanner suspected that the key to wine’s protective effect is when, precisely, it is consumed. He hypothesised that if the polyphenols arrive in the stomach at the moment when the fats are releasing malondialdehyde and its kin, then this might stop these toxic materials from getting any farther into the body.</p>
<p>To test this idea, he and his colleagues fed a group of rats one of two meals—either red meat from a turkey (a foodstuff shown by previous research to raise malondialdehyde levels in humans) or such meat mixed with red-wine concentrate. An hour and a half after the rats had eaten, they were killed. Dr Kanner then removed their stomachs and analysed the contents. As he reports in the <em>Journal of Agricultural and Food Chemistry</em>, the wine concentrate did indeed reduce the formation of malondialdehyde. It also cut the level of hydroperoxides, another group of oxidising agents that cause cell damage.</p>
<p>Based on these results, Dr Kanner and his colleagues argue that looking for antioxidants from wine in the bloodstream was a mistake; they do not need to be there to be useful. Their research also suggests that the habit of eating fruit at the end of a meal is a healthy one. Many fruits, too, are rich in polyphenols (wine is, after all, just fermented fruit juice). By treating them as dessert, these fruits arrive in the stomach at the point when meat-digestion is poised to do its worst—nipping the problem in the bud, as it were.</p>
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